Tuesday 10 April 2012
Monday 5 March 2012
Overbetting the river editing phase
Overbetting the River for value
What is overbetting?
Overbetting is betting bigger than pot.
Why do it?
Just like any other bet, you should overbet for 2 main reasons.
Reason 1 - For value. Make worse hands call.
Reason 2 - As a bluff. Make better hands fold.
What is some bet size math i could use?
A basic guideline on how big your bet has to be in order to break even is as follows.
For example if the pot is $100 and you bet 50% pot ($50) you need him to fold 33% of the time to break even. 50/(100+50) = 33%.
50% - 50/150 - 33%
60% - 60/160 - 37,5%
70% - 70/170 - 41%
75% - 75/175 - 43%
80% - 80/180 - 44,4%
90% - 90/190 - 47,4%
100% - 100/200 - 50%
125% - 125/225 - 55.5%
150% - 150/250 - 60%
200% - 200/300 - 67%
As you can see, the bigger your bet, the more successful you have to be if bluffing. If you want to overbet bluff the river for 150% pot, the villain will have to fold at least 60% of the time for you to profit. We will see later how often villains fold to various sized river bets.
Why not overbet the river as a bluff?
At the micros i highly recommend not overbetting as a bluff. Because of the lack of fold equity and the lack of players being able to read hands, your chances of getting someone to fold is much less likely than you need in order to be profitable.
Even though mathematically we can show profit by getting them to fold as you will see later where i post screen shots of my success rates, its not worth the variance. Most of the time it will be better to give up or bluff smaller.
When should I overbet the river for value?
When you have a strong hand that is ahead of the villain's range and you think the villain also has a strong hand, you can overbet. If the villain has a weak hand based on the post flop actions, its better to bet smaller as he will fold far too often to an overbet.
How successful is overbetting the river?
The following tables are filtered out so i only have value hands and when i bet the river with various sizes.
This is betting 3/4 pot on the river (75-89% pot).
This is when i pot the river (90-100% pot).
This table is when i overbet the river (101-149%).
This is when i bet 1.5x pot or more.
Analysis
As you can see from the tables, my won $ at showdown is high for all situations. The reason that it is less successful when i bet 1.5x+ the pot is because it will isolate their calling range more to their strongest of hands than if i bet pot. They will fold more medium and medium-strong hands and end up calling with better hands at a higher frequency. This however should not hinder you from overbetting. Its still very very profitable in the long run.
My saw showdown is on average 39% when i overbet so the villains will fold their hand about 61% of the time. As you can see when i bet 75-100% pot i get folds about 63% of the time. That is a very small difference and with the money i win by overbetting, it massively makes up the 2% difference when they fold.
What should i look for when overbetting?
When you are thinking about overbetting, there are certain things you need to look for before you bet. They are:
1. Your hand strength. You need to have a strong hand if you are going to overbet for value. When overbetting you isolate their calling range to the strongest of their hands. So in order for you to profit, you need to beat that range.
2. Is the villain capable of calling overbets. Some players will fold everything but the nuts to an overbet. You need to determine based on the players stats and tendancies if he is likely to call an overbet. Usually nitty players wont call an overbet without a very nutted hand. Very loose bad players will gladly call an overbet with any top pair. There is not clear way to know if anyone is capable but usually the bad players are the most capable and the good regs and nits can fold.
3. Did the board texture come out in a way that would likely have improved his hand. If the turn and river go brick brick and its unlikely the villain improved, then it would be not a good spot to overbet as they will be folding very often. If the turn and river came out connecting the board but still leaving you with a very strong hand, then its a better spot to overbet as they most likely improved to 2 pair or better.
Some good overbetting spots
Here are some hand examples to illustrate a variety of situations where overbetting will be successful in the long run.
Hand 1.
Villain is 33/5 over 21 hands. We dont know much about him. Based on the postflop action we can assume we are ahead. By the time the river comes there are a lot of 2 pair combos of hands that we beat. Its true a back door flush can and back door straight but those combos are much less likely. So by the river we most likely have the best hand and want to value bet. I advocate shoving because based on the info we have, the villain is more likely to make bad calls based on his passive preflop nature and based on the board outcome, there are a lot of 2pr combos, namely AK and KQ.
[b]SB Hero: $82.89[/b]
BB: $49.50
UTG: $66.19
CO: $51.60
BTN: $38.88
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is SB and dealt :5h: :5c:
[color=red]UTG raises to $1[/color], [i][color=gray]CO folds[/color][/i], BTN calls $1, Hero calls $0.75, [i][color=gray]BB folds[/color][/i]
[b]Flop:[/b] ($3.50) :kh: :5s: :4c: [color=green](3 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $2.50[/color], UTG calls $2.50, BTN calls $2.50
[b]Turn:[/b] ($11) :kh: :5s: :4c: :ac: [color=green](3 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $9.50[/color], UTG calls $9.50, [i][color=gray]BTN folds[/color][/i]
[b]River:[/b] ($30) :kh: :5s: :4c: :ac: :qc: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $69.89 (All-in)[/color]
Hand 2.
Villain is 62/20 over 370 hands. I call because of implied odds vs his overall range and its likely he will pay me off enough if i hit my draw.
On the river i decide to shove because this type of player can make bad calls and his range is so wide that he can connect with this very wet flop in a lot of ways. He folded but that doesnt mean i made a mistake. You wont be successful every time but you will be successful plenty enough to make it very profitable.
SB: $81.22
[b]BB Hero: $66.41[/b]
UTG: $19.50
MP: $75.77
CO: $53.50
BTN: $83.16
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is BB and dealt :js: :9d:
[i][color=gray]4 folds[/color][/i], [color=red]SB raises to $1[/color], Hero calls $0.50
[b]Flop:[/b] ($2) :10s: :8c: :6c: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]SB bets $1.50[/color], Hero calls $1.50
[b]Turn:[/b] ($5) :10s: :8c: :6c: :ah: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]SB bets $2.50[/color], Hero calls $2.50
[b]River:[/b] ($10) :10s: :8c: :6c: :ah: :qh: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
SB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $61.41 (All-in)[/color]
Hand 3.
Villain is 65/19 over 109 hands. When he calls AK4A there is a very good chance that he has an Ax hand. There are some draws but these players play every Ax hand so when the river comes a blank i think its best to shove because they will call with any Ax and we beat most and all missed draws are going to fold regardless of what we bet. So lets get max value if he is going to have an inelastic calling range.
SB: $49.50
BB: $99.82
UTG: $167.35
MP: $92.28
CO: $52.12
[b]BTN Hero: $83.54[/b]
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is BTN and dealt :kh: :kc:
[i][color=gray]3 folds[/color][/i], [color=red]Hero raises to $1.75[/color], [i][color=gray]SB folds[/color][/i], BB calls $1.25
[b]Flop:[/b] ($3.75) :ad: :kd: :4h: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $3.50[/color], BB calls $3.50
[b]Turn:[/b] ($10.75) :ad: :kd: :4h: :ah: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $11[/color], BB calls $11
[b]River:[/b] ($32.75) :ad: :kd: :4h: :ah: :5s: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $67.29 (All-in)[/color]
Hand 4.
Villain is 49/11 over 400 hands. We can bet bet shove here all day and get called by much worse. Odds are he wont fold many Ax hands and theres a straight and lots of 2pr combos he could have.
SB: $10
[b]BB Hero: $10.04[/b]
UTG: $11.66
CO: $16.02
BTN: $13.22
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.15) Hero is BB and dealt :8c: :4c:
[i][color=gray]UTG folds[/color][/i], CO calls $0.10, BTN calls $0.10, SB calls $0.05, Hero checks
[b]Flop:[/b] ($0.40) :5c: :ac: :3c: [color=green](4 players)[/color]
SB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $0.60[/color], CO calls $0.60, [i][color=gray]SB folds[/color][/i]
[b]Turn:[/b] ($1.60) :5c: :ac: :3c: :10s: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $2[/color], CO calls $2
[b]River:[/b] ($5.60) :5c: :ac: :3c: :10s: :4s: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $7.34 (All-in)[/color]
Hand 5.
Villain is 19/16 over 200 hands. Because of the way he played his hand, it looks a lot like a flush draw. When we hit on the river i think its an easy overbet. Theres only a handful of better hands he will call with and a big draw got there that i still beat.
SB: $9.72
[b]BB Hero: $27.43[/b]
UTG: $5.79
CO: $10
BTN: $6.30
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.15) Hero is BB and dealt :3s: :3c:
[i][color=gray]UTG folds[/color][/i], [color=red]CO raises to $0.35[/color], [color=red]BTN raises to $0.60[/color], [i][color=gray]SB folds[/color][/i], Hero calls $0.50, CO calls $0.25
[b]Flop:[/b] ($1.85) :7d: :10c: :2d: [color=green](3 players)[/color]
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks
[b]Turn:[/b] ($1.85) :7d: :10c: :2d: :2c: [color=green](3 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $1[/color], CO calls $1, [i][color=gray]BTN folds[/color][/i]
[b]River:[/b] ($3.85) :7d: :10c: :2d: :2c: :3d: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $25.83 (All-in)[/color]
Some bad overbetting spots
Hand 1.
Villain is 26/21 over 400 hands. I have the board crushed on all streets. When he x back the turn and the river is a blank there is a very unlikely chance he has anything. Instead of overbetting and getting folds 99% of the time, i think a small bet to get a weak 1 pair hand or maybe even A high to call which is the majority of his made hand range. Most of his hands are air so i expected a lot of folds here.
SB: $107.55
[b]BB Hero: $50.75[/b]
UTG: $58.17
CO: $70.11
BTN: $21.84
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is BB and dealt :9d: :9h:
[i][color=gray]UTG folds[/color][/i], [color=red]CO raises to $1.31[/color], [i][color=gray]2 folds[/color][/i], Hero calls $0.81
[b]Flop:[/b] ($2.87) :7s: :9c: :9s: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
Hero checks, [color=red]CO bets $2[/color], Hero calls $2
[b]Turn:[/b] ($6.87) :7s: :9c: :9s: :4c: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
Hero checks, CO checks
[b]River:[/b] ($6.87) :7s: :9c: :9s: :4c: :2c: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $5[/color]
Hand 2.
Villain is 41/19 over 650 hands. Based on board texture and lack of aggression in the pot its unlikely he has anything. If i bet big here i will only get calls from better or chops. I want to get max value and in this spot its better to bet small to get A high, 4x, and pairs to call me.
SB: $59.64
BB: $76.70
[b]UTG Hero: $50[/b]
MP: $63.55
CO: $20.58
BTN: $85.51
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is UTG and dealt :qd: :kd:
[color=red]Hero raises to $1.75[/color], [i][color=gray]4 folds[/color][/i], BB calls $1.25
[b]Flop:[/b] ($3.75) :8h: :8c: :4d: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, Hero checks
[b]Turn:[/b] ($3.75) :8h: :8c: :4d: :qs: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $2.50[/color], BB calls $2.50
[b]River:[/b] ($8.75) :8h: :8c: :4d: :qs: :8s: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $2.50[/color]
Hand 3.
Villain is 25/20 over 1.1k hands. I x back the flop because im way ahead or way behind here. When he doesnt lead the turn i go for value and he calls. On the river its most likely he has a big pair and less likely an Ax hand. So in order for me to get max value i go for a half pot bet because with 2 aces on the flop and me xing it back its less likely i have an Ax hand. Also i price him in more to call with JJ-KK. If i shoved here i would only get called by better.
SB: $44.47
BB: $49.50
UTG: $140.44
MP: $65.89
[b]CO Hero: $50[/b]
BTN: $78.39
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is CO and dealt :ac: :3c:
[i][color=gray]UTG folds[/color][/i], [color=red]MP raises to $1.75[/color], [color=red]Hero raises to $5.50[/color], [i][color=gray]3 folds[/color][/i], MP calls $3.75
[b]Flop:[/b] ($11.75) :ah: :as: :10h: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
MP checks, Hero checks
[b]Turn:[/b] ($11.75) :ah: :as: :10h: :7d: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
MP checks, [color=red]Hero bets $7.50[/color], MP calls $7.50
[b]River:[/b] ($26.75) :ah: :as: :10h: :7d: :9s: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
MP checks, [color=red]Hero bets $13[/color]
Hand 4.
Villain is 24/19 over 2k hands. When he leads out the turn, he could have any 2 cards and i call so he can still bluff on the river. If i raise here he will be folding way too often. On the river he x it to me so i doubt he has anything so i want to get max value and go for a 2/3 pot bet hoping he had some kind of Qx or TT type hand. I bet about 2/3 but i shouldve bet smaller i think.
SB: $50
BB: $99.24
UTG: $55.17
MP: $25.87
[b]CO Hero: $80.16[/b]
BTN: $52.98
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is CO and dealt :ks: :9s:
[i][color=gray]2 folds[/color][/i], [color=red]Hero raises to $1.50[/color], [i][color=gray]2 folds[/color][/i], BB calls $1
[b]Flop:[/b] ($3.25) :qh: :9h: :6c: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, Hero checks
[b]Turn:[/b] ($3.25) :qh: :9h: :6c: :9d: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]BB bets $2.43[/color], Hero calls $2.43
[b]River:[/b] ($8.11) :qh: :9h: :6c: :9d: :3d: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $5[/color]
Hand 5.
Villain is 21/19 over 200 hands. When he raises the flop and x the turn its unlikely he has anything and was just bluffing the flop. So on the river i try to extract some value by betting about half pot. Its very unlikely he has anything here but we will get the odd call from Jx.
[b]SB Hero: $51[/b]
BB: $50.75
UTG: $59.06
CO: $55.96
BTN: $81.59
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is SB and dealt :6s: :3s:
[i][color=gray]3 folds[/color][/i], [color=red]Hero raises to $1.50[/color], BB calls $1
[b]Flop:[/b] ($3) :3h: :3c: :js: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $2.50[/color], [color=red]BB raises to $6.50[/color], Hero calls $4
[b]Turn:[/b] ($16) :3h: :3c: :js: :9c: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
Hero checks, BB checks
[b]River:[/b] ($16) :3h: :3c: :js: :9c: :4c: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $9[/color]
I recommend folding to river overbets by default. One reason is if we are hero calling, we have to be successful far more often than if it was a 3/4 bet. The times they are bluffing are tiny compared to the times they will overbet for value so odds are we wont be nearly as successful as we need to be.
Overbets will almost always be fat value bets so we should limit our calling range to the very tip top of our range until proven otherwise.
Conclusion
Overbetting the river is a great tool to get maximum value from players who were going to call regardless of bet size. Why not bet more if they were going to call anyways right?
Mathematically it doesnt need to work much more often than a normal pot size bet but when it does you get a ton more value.
Try it out in your game and dont get upset if it doesnt work for you the first time, keep doing it in the right situations and you will end up showing more profit than if you never did it at all.
If you have any feedback or add ons feel free to post them.
Thanks for your time and go out there and make some money!
What is overbetting?
Overbetting is betting bigger than pot.
Why do it?
Just like any other bet, you should overbet for 2 main reasons.
Reason 1 - For value. Make worse hands call.
Reason 2 - As a bluff. Make better hands fold.
What is some bet size math i could use?
A basic guideline on how big your bet has to be in order to break even is as follows.
For example if the pot is $100 and you bet 50% pot ($50) you need him to fold 33% of the time to break even. 50/(100+50) = 33%.
50% - 50/150 - 33%
60% - 60/160 - 37,5%
70% - 70/170 - 41%
75% - 75/175 - 43%
80% - 80/180 - 44,4%
90% - 90/190 - 47,4%
100% - 100/200 - 50%
125% - 125/225 - 55.5%
150% - 150/250 - 60%
200% - 200/300 - 67%
Why not overbet the river as a bluff?
At the micros i highly recommend not overbetting as a bluff. Because of the lack of fold equity and the lack of players being able to read hands, your chances of getting someone to fold is much less likely than you need in order to be profitable.
Even though mathematically we can show profit by getting them to fold as you will see later where i post screen shots of my success rates, its not worth the variance. Most of the time it will be better to give up or bluff smaller.
When should I overbet the river for value?
When you have a strong hand that is ahead of the villain's range and you think the villain also has a strong hand, you can overbet. If the villain has a weak hand based on the post flop actions, its better to bet smaller as he will fold far too often to an overbet.
How successful is overbetting the river?
The following tables are filtered out so i only have value hands and when i bet the river with various sizes.
This is betting 3/4 pot on the river (75-89% pot).
This is when i pot the river (90-100% pot).
This table is when i overbet the river (101-149%).
This is when i bet 1.5x pot or more.
Analysis
As you can see from the tables, my won $ at showdown is high for all situations. The reason that it is less successful when i bet 1.5x+ the pot is because it will isolate their calling range more to their strongest of hands than if i bet pot. They will fold more medium and medium-strong hands and end up calling with better hands at a higher frequency. This however should not hinder you from overbetting. Its still very very profitable in the long run.
My saw showdown is on average 39% when i overbet so the villains will fold their hand about 61% of the time. As you can see when i bet 75-100% pot i get folds about 63% of the time. That is a very small difference and with the money i win by overbetting, it massively makes up the 2% difference when they fold.
What should i look for when overbetting?
When you are thinking about overbetting, there are certain things you need to look for before you bet. They are:
1. Your hand strength. You need to have a strong hand if you are going to overbet for value. When overbetting you isolate their calling range to the strongest of their hands. So in order for you to profit, you need to beat that range.
2. Is the villain capable of calling overbets. Some players will fold everything but the nuts to an overbet. You need to determine based on the players stats and tendancies if he is likely to call an overbet. Usually nitty players wont call an overbet without a very nutted hand. Very loose bad players will gladly call an overbet with any top pair. There is not clear way to know if anyone is capable but usually the bad players are the most capable and the good regs and nits can fold.
3. Did the board texture come out in a way that would likely have improved his hand. If the turn and river go brick brick and its unlikely the villain improved, then it would be not a good spot to overbet as they will be folding very often. If the turn and river came out connecting the board but still leaving you with a very strong hand, then its a better spot to overbet as they most likely improved to 2 pair or better.
Some good overbetting spots
Here are some hand examples to illustrate a variety of situations where overbetting will be successful in the long run.
Hand 1.
Villain is 33/5 over 21 hands. We dont know much about him. Based on the postflop action we can assume we are ahead. By the time the river comes there are a lot of 2 pair combos of hands that we beat. Its true a back door flush can and back door straight but those combos are much less likely. So by the river we most likely have the best hand and want to value bet. I advocate shoving because based on the info we have, the villain is more likely to make bad calls based on his passive preflop nature and based on the board outcome, there are a lot of 2pr combos, namely AK and KQ.
[b]SB Hero: $82.89[/b]
BB: $49.50
UTG: $66.19
CO: $51.60
BTN: $38.88
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is SB and dealt :5h: :5c:
[color=red]UTG raises to $1[/color], [i][color=gray]CO folds[/color][/i], BTN calls $1, Hero calls $0.75, [i][color=gray]BB folds[/color][/i]
[b]Flop:[/b] ($3.50) :kh: :5s: :4c: [color=green](3 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $2.50[/color], UTG calls $2.50, BTN calls $2.50
[b]Turn:[/b] ($11) :kh: :5s: :4c: :ac: [color=green](3 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $9.50[/color], UTG calls $9.50, [i][color=gray]BTN folds[/color][/i]
[b]River:[/b] ($30) :kh: :5s: :4c: :ac: :qc: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $69.89 (All-in)[/color]
Hand 2.
Villain is 62/20 over 370 hands. I call because of implied odds vs his overall range and its likely he will pay me off enough if i hit my draw.
On the river i decide to shove because this type of player can make bad calls and his range is so wide that he can connect with this very wet flop in a lot of ways. He folded but that doesnt mean i made a mistake. You wont be successful every time but you will be successful plenty enough to make it very profitable.
SB: $81.22
[b]BB Hero: $66.41[/b]
UTG: $19.50
MP: $75.77
CO: $53.50
BTN: $83.16
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is BB and dealt :js: :9d:
[i][color=gray]4 folds[/color][/i], [color=red]SB raises to $1[/color], Hero calls $0.50
[b]Flop:[/b] ($2) :10s: :8c: :6c: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]SB bets $1.50[/color], Hero calls $1.50
[b]Turn:[/b] ($5) :10s: :8c: :6c: :ah: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]SB bets $2.50[/color], Hero calls $2.50
[b]River:[/b] ($10) :10s: :8c: :6c: :ah: :qh: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
SB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $61.41 (All-in)[/color]
Hand 3.
Villain is 65/19 over 109 hands. When he calls AK4A there is a very good chance that he has an Ax hand. There are some draws but these players play every Ax hand so when the river comes a blank i think its best to shove because they will call with any Ax and we beat most and all missed draws are going to fold regardless of what we bet. So lets get max value if he is going to have an inelastic calling range.
SB: $49.50
BB: $99.82
UTG: $167.35
MP: $92.28
CO: $52.12
[b]BTN Hero: $83.54[/b]
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is BTN and dealt :kh: :kc:
[i][color=gray]3 folds[/color][/i], [color=red]Hero raises to $1.75[/color], [i][color=gray]SB folds[/color][/i], BB calls $1.25
[b]Flop:[/b] ($3.75) :ad: :kd: :4h: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $3.50[/color], BB calls $3.50
[b]Turn:[/b] ($10.75) :ad: :kd: :4h: :ah: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $11[/color], BB calls $11
[b]River:[/b] ($32.75) :ad: :kd: :4h: :ah: :5s: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $67.29 (All-in)[/color]
Hand 4.
Villain is 49/11 over 400 hands. We can bet bet shove here all day and get called by much worse. Odds are he wont fold many Ax hands and theres a straight and lots of 2pr combos he could have.
SB: $10
[b]BB Hero: $10.04[/b]
UTG: $11.66
CO: $16.02
BTN: $13.22
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.15) Hero is BB and dealt :8c: :4c:
[i][color=gray]UTG folds[/color][/i], CO calls $0.10, BTN calls $0.10, SB calls $0.05, Hero checks
[b]Flop:[/b] ($0.40) :5c: :ac: :3c: [color=green](4 players)[/color]
SB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $0.60[/color], CO calls $0.60, [i][color=gray]SB folds[/color][/i]
[b]Turn:[/b] ($1.60) :5c: :ac: :3c: :10s: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $2[/color], CO calls $2
[b]River:[/b] ($5.60) :5c: :ac: :3c: :10s: :4s: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $7.34 (All-in)[/color]
Hand 5.
Villain is 19/16 over 200 hands. Because of the way he played his hand, it looks a lot like a flush draw. When we hit on the river i think its an easy overbet. Theres only a handful of better hands he will call with and a big draw got there that i still beat.
SB: $9.72
[b]BB Hero: $27.43[/b]
UTG: $5.79
CO: $10
BTN: $6.30
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.15) Hero is BB and dealt :3s: :3c:
[i][color=gray]UTG folds[/color][/i], [color=red]CO raises to $0.35[/color], [color=red]BTN raises to $0.60[/color], [i][color=gray]SB folds[/color][/i], Hero calls $0.50, CO calls $0.25
[b]Flop:[/b] ($1.85) :7d: :10c: :2d: [color=green](3 players)[/color]
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks
[b]Turn:[/b] ($1.85) :7d: :10c: :2d: :2c: [color=green](3 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $1[/color], CO calls $1, [i][color=gray]BTN folds[/color][/i]
[b]River:[/b] ($3.85) :7d: :10c: :2d: :2c: :3d: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $25.83 (All-in)[/color]
Some bad overbetting spots
Hand 1.
Villain is 26/21 over 400 hands. I have the board crushed on all streets. When he x back the turn and the river is a blank there is a very unlikely chance he has anything. Instead of overbetting and getting folds 99% of the time, i think a small bet to get a weak 1 pair hand or maybe even A high to call which is the majority of his made hand range. Most of his hands are air so i expected a lot of folds here.
SB: $107.55
[b]BB Hero: $50.75[/b]
UTG: $58.17
CO: $70.11
BTN: $21.84
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is BB and dealt :9d: :9h:
[i][color=gray]UTG folds[/color][/i], [color=red]CO raises to $1.31[/color], [i][color=gray]2 folds[/color][/i], Hero calls $0.81
[b]Flop:[/b] ($2.87) :7s: :9c: :9s: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
Hero checks, [color=red]CO bets $2[/color], Hero calls $2
[b]Turn:[/b] ($6.87) :7s: :9c: :9s: :4c: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
Hero checks, CO checks
[b]River:[/b] ($6.87) :7s: :9c: :9s: :4c: :2c: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $5[/color]
Hand 2.
Villain is 41/19 over 650 hands. Based on board texture and lack of aggression in the pot its unlikely he has anything. If i bet big here i will only get calls from better or chops. I want to get max value and in this spot its better to bet small to get A high, 4x, and pairs to call me.
SB: $59.64
BB: $76.70
[b]UTG Hero: $50[/b]
MP: $63.55
CO: $20.58
BTN: $85.51
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is UTG and dealt :qd: :kd:
[color=red]Hero raises to $1.75[/color], [i][color=gray]4 folds[/color][/i], BB calls $1.25
[b]Flop:[/b] ($3.75) :8h: :8c: :4d: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, Hero checks
[b]Turn:[/b] ($3.75) :8h: :8c: :4d: :qs: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $2.50[/color], BB calls $2.50
[b]River:[/b] ($8.75) :8h: :8c: :4d: :qs: :8s: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $2.50[/color]
Hand 3.
Villain is 25/20 over 1.1k hands. I x back the flop because im way ahead or way behind here. When he doesnt lead the turn i go for value and he calls. On the river its most likely he has a big pair and less likely an Ax hand. So in order for me to get max value i go for a half pot bet because with 2 aces on the flop and me xing it back its less likely i have an Ax hand. Also i price him in more to call with JJ-KK. If i shoved here i would only get called by better.
SB: $44.47
BB: $49.50
UTG: $140.44
MP: $65.89
[b]CO Hero: $50[/b]
BTN: $78.39
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is CO and dealt :ac: :3c:
[i][color=gray]UTG folds[/color][/i], [color=red]MP raises to $1.75[/color], [color=red]Hero raises to $5.50[/color], [i][color=gray]3 folds[/color][/i], MP calls $3.75
[b]Flop:[/b] ($11.75) :ah: :as: :10h: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
MP checks, Hero checks
[b]Turn:[/b] ($11.75) :ah: :as: :10h: :7d: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
MP checks, [color=red]Hero bets $7.50[/color], MP calls $7.50
[b]River:[/b] ($26.75) :ah: :as: :10h: :7d: :9s: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
MP checks, [color=red]Hero bets $13[/color]
Hand 4.
Villain is 24/19 over 2k hands. When he leads out the turn, he could have any 2 cards and i call so he can still bluff on the river. If i raise here he will be folding way too often. On the river he x it to me so i doubt he has anything so i want to get max value and go for a 2/3 pot bet hoping he had some kind of Qx or TT type hand. I bet about 2/3 but i shouldve bet smaller i think.
SB: $50
BB: $99.24
UTG: $55.17
MP: $25.87
[b]CO Hero: $80.16[/b]
BTN: $52.98
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is CO and dealt :ks: :9s:
[i][color=gray]2 folds[/color][/i], [color=red]Hero raises to $1.50[/color], [i][color=gray]2 folds[/color][/i], BB calls $1
[b]Flop:[/b] ($3.25) :qh: :9h: :6c: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, Hero checks
[b]Turn:[/b] ($3.25) :qh: :9h: :6c: :9d: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]BB bets $2.43[/color], Hero calls $2.43
[b]River:[/b] ($8.11) :qh: :9h: :6c: :9d: :3d: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, [color=red]Hero bets $5[/color]
Hand 5.
Villain is 21/19 over 200 hands. When he raises the flop and x the turn its unlikely he has anything and was just bluffing the flop. So on the river i try to extract some value by betting about half pot. Its very unlikely he has anything here but we will get the odd call from Jx.
[b]SB Hero: $51[/b]
BB: $50.75
UTG: $59.06
CO: $55.96
BTN: $81.59
[b]Pre-flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is SB and dealt :6s: :3s:
[i][color=gray]3 folds[/color][/i], [color=red]Hero raises to $1.50[/color], BB calls $1
[b]Flop:[/b] ($3) :3h: :3c: :js: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $2.50[/color], [color=red]BB raises to $6.50[/color], Hero calls $4
[b]Turn:[/b] ($16) :3h: :3c: :js: :9c: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
Hero checks, BB checks
[b]River:[/b] ($16) :3h: :3c: :js: :9c: :4c: [color=green](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $9[/color]
What should i do vs an overbet on the river?
I recommend folding to river overbets by default. One reason is if we are hero calling, we have to be successful far more often than if it was a 3/4 bet. The times they are bluffing are tiny compared to the times they will overbet for value so odds are we wont be nearly as successful as we need to be.
Overbets will almost always be fat value bets so we should limit our calling range to the very tip top of our range until proven otherwise.
Conclusion
Overbetting the river is a great tool to get maximum value from players who were going to call regardless of bet size. Why not bet more if they were going to call anyways right?
Mathematically it doesnt need to work much more often than a normal pot size bet but when it does you get a ton more value.
Try it out in your game and dont get upset if it doesnt work for you the first time, keep doing it in the right situations and you will end up showing more profit than if you never did it at all.
If you have any feedback or add ons feel free to post them.
Thanks for your time and go out there and make some money!
Stealing 101
Stealing 101
What is stealing?
Stealing is raising preflop in order to win the blinds.
Why should i steal?
You should steal because its one area where a lot of players fail to do it as frequently as they should. Also most players fold way too much to steals so you exploit them by stealing their blinds.
What stats are important when looking to steal?
Look for these stats when considering stealing.
Vpip - This will let you know if the player is very loose or tight. If the player is 75/4 and you want to steal 93o on the btn, you might want to reconsider. You need to adjust your steal range based on the players' vpip left to act.
3b - This stat will help you figure out if the players left to act will 3b a lot or little vs you. You can tighten up your stealing if they have a high 3b.
3b vs steal - This is the players 3b from the blinds vs a co or btn open. It is NOT the same as 3b. You can compare this stat with the normal 3b stat to see if a player likes to resteal from the blinds a lot or plays the same range as he would normally 3b in any situation.
Steal from co/btn/sb - You can determine a players steal range with these positional stats. You will see what % of hands he steals with from each position.
Fold vs steal sb/bb - You can see how often a player will fold vs a steal in the blinds vs co/bt/sb open.
A typical reg/tag fold to steal will be somewhere around 70% or more. Usually in the 80s.
Call vs steal sb/bb - You can see how often a player will call vs a steal in the blinds vs a co/btn/sb open.
What should my bet sizing be preflop?
CO : 3x
BTN : 2.5x
SB : 3x
Why is our btn raise so small?
We want to steal as much as we can. The more hands we open, the more we need to be successful to profit. If we reduce our bet size, that allows us to be successful less often to profit. For example if we open to 4x on the btn, we need to succeed more often than if we bet 2.5x. Betting bigger just cuts into our profit when betting smaller accomplishes the same thing for a cheaper price.
Betting smaller also allows us to play more 3b pots in position. The blinds' 3b size will usually be smaller is we make it 2.5x rather than 3x. This way we can call and play postflop in position cheaper.
Wont the blinds call more if we make it cheaper?
Not really. I dont notice a change in range when i bet smaller. But it doesnt really matter because we have position and initiative which are very very important in poker. Its true our average hand strength will be weaker but the other 2 factors allow us to still profit.
How do i steal from the co?
The co is the first of the stealing positions. Its a good place to steal because if the btn folds, you will have position on the blinds if they call. Also there are only 3 players left to act and odds are they wont have a hand to play back against you often enough to make stealing unprofitable.
Steal wider vs a tight btn, tighter vs a loose btn. Also look at the blinds and determine what the best range to steal will be. Here is a good default starting position. Just widen or tighten it based on the players left to act.
How do i steal from the btn?
You will have position postflop on the btn so you want to use that advantage as much as possible.
In this case you want to look at the villains' fold vs steal stats and see how often the will fold.
Scenario 1. Both blinds have high fold to steal.
We can open 100% of our hands on the btn. If they will fold a lot, why not open every single time. Remember we are opening to 2.5x so our success doesnt have to be very often in order to profit.
Scenario 2. Both blinds have low fold to steal.
In this case we want to tighten up our stealing range to value hands, hands that will hit top pair or better a lot.
Scenario 3. 1 blind has high fold to steal and one has a low fold to steal.
Play your hand as if the tight player isnt there and you are heads up vs the loose player who will call. Base your opening range vs him. Overall though you will still want to steal a lot, just throw away the worst of the hands.
Use the charts above to create the best in between range. Remember to err on suited hands more than unsuited and high cards vs low cards.
How do i steal from the sb?
Its folded to you in the sb and its your turn to act. First look at his fold to steal in bb stat.
Scenario 1. Fold to steal in bb is 80% or higher.
Raise 100% of your holdings no matter what. Mathematically it will be profitable to raise any 2 cards here no matter what happens later on in the hand. Here is a range that you should be stealing with.
Scenario 2. Fold to steal in bb is less than 50%.
This player will be calling or raising you a lot so you need to have a more value heavy range but still be opening a lot. Here is a good default on where to start and you can adjust from here.
Scenario 3. Villain is somewhere in between 50 and 80% fold to steal in bb.
In this case its up to you to adjust your opening range based on his fold frequency. Overall though i would encourage you to err on the side of stealing rather than folding.
How do i counter stealing on the btn from the co?
If you notice the co opening a lot. Take a look at his stats and see what his opening range from the co looks like. If he is stealing you can call wider and look to float and raise postflop or you can 3b pre to get him to slow down.
How do i counter stealing in the blinds vs the co/btn?
In this spot we can look to call or 3b them depending on their tendancies. This is just a basic stealing article so i dont want to get into too much detail but just dont blindly fold vs their steals. We know they have a wide range so they wont be able to take a lot of heat from pre and postflop aggression.
How do i counter stealing on the bb vs the sb?
This is the absolute best position to be in in poker. Its better than the btn. When you are in the bb, you have position pre and postflop and you know the sb has a huge stealing range. I think this is a very important spot to play back at stealers. I would call any playable hand like 64s and 98o. I would call with hands that dominate him as well like JTo and A9s. I would 3b a ton here as well and my range would be determined by his facing 3b tendancies.
Overall though you dont want to give these guys a walk every time. Make their life difficult.
He called my steal, what do i do on the flop?
This is out of scope, but use your knowledge, position, and skill to play better than him.
Conclusion
Stealing is an incredibly profitable and effective tool. Most players dont do it enough. Most players dont counter it enough. Get out there and experiment, break your boundaries, get out of your comfort zone and make some money.
Feel free to add any advice or comments to make this thread as complete as possible.
EDIT
* Its true that their defending range might be different based on the position of the pfr. You can add those specific stats in your pop up in HEM if you want to reference them.
I cant edit my post so ill add a screen shot of what you mean for others to reference.
What is stealing?
Stealing is raising preflop in order to win the blinds.
Why should i steal?
You should steal because its one area where a lot of players fail to do it as frequently as they should. Also most players fold way too much to steals so you exploit them by stealing their blinds.
What stats are important when looking to steal?
Look for these stats when considering stealing.
Vpip - This will let you know if the player is very loose or tight. If the player is 75/4 and you want to steal 93o on the btn, you might want to reconsider. You need to adjust your steal range based on the players' vpip left to act.
3b - This stat will help you figure out if the players left to act will 3b a lot or little vs you. You can tighten up your stealing if they have a high 3b.
3b vs steal - This is the players 3b from the blinds vs a co or btn open. It is NOT the same as 3b. You can compare this stat with the normal 3b stat to see if a player likes to resteal from the blinds a lot or plays the same range as he would normally 3b in any situation.
Steal from co/btn/sb - You can determine a players steal range with these positional stats. You will see what % of hands he steals with from each position.
Fold vs steal sb/bb - You can see how often a player will fold vs a steal in the blinds vs co/bt/sb open.
A typical reg/tag fold to steal will be somewhere around 70% or more. Usually in the 80s.
Call vs steal sb/bb - You can see how often a player will call vs a steal in the blinds vs a co/btn/sb open.
What should my bet sizing be preflop?
CO : 3x
BTN : 2.5x
SB : 3x
Why is our btn raise so small?
We want to steal as much as we can. The more hands we open, the more we need to be successful to profit. If we reduce our bet size, that allows us to be successful less often to profit. For example if we open to 4x on the btn, we need to succeed more often than if we bet 2.5x. Betting bigger just cuts into our profit when betting smaller accomplishes the same thing for a cheaper price.
Betting smaller also allows us to play more 3b pots in position. The blinds' 3b size will usually be smaller is we make it 2.5x rather than 3x. This way we can call and play postflop in position cheaper.
Wont the blinds call more if we make it cheaper?
Not really. I dont notice a change in range when i bet smaller. But it doesnt really matter because we have position and initiative which are very very important in poker. Its true our average hand strength will be weaker but the other 2 factors allow us to still profit.
How do i steal from the co?
The co is the first of the stealing positions. Its a good place to steal because if the btn folds, you will have position on the blinds if they call. Also there are only 3 players left to act and odds are they wont have a hand to play back against you often enough to make stealing unprofitable.
Steal wider vs a tight btn, tighter vs a loose btn. Also look at the blinds and determine what the best range to steal will be. Here is a good default starting position. Just widen or tighten it based on the players left to act.
How do i steal from the btn?
You will have position postflop on the btn so you want to use that advantage as much as possible.
In this case you want to look at the villains' fold vs steal stats and see how often the will fold.
Scenario 1. Both blinds have high fold to steal.
We can open 100% of our hands on the btn. If they will fold a lot, why not open every single time. Remember we are opening to 2.5x so our success doesnt have to be very often in order to profit.
Scenario 2. Both blinds have low fold to steal.
In this case we want to tighten up our stealing range to value hands, hands that will hit top pair or better a lot.
Scenario 3. 1 blind has high fold to steal and one has a low fold to steal.
Play your hand as if the tight player isnt there and you are heads up vs the loose player who will call. Base your opening range vs him. Overall though you will still want to steal a lot, just throw away the worst of the hands.
Use the charts above to create the best in between range. Remember to err on suited hands more than unsuited and high cards vs low cards.
How do i steal from the sb?
Its folded to you in the sb and its your turn to act. First look at his fold to steal in bb stat.
Scenario 1. Fold to steal in bb is 80% or higher.
Raise 100% of your holdings no matter what. Mathematically it will be profitable to raise any 2 cards here no matter what happens later on in the hand. Here is a range that you should be stealing with.
Scenario 2. Fold to steal in bb is less than 50%.
This player will be calling or raising you a lot so you need to have a more value heavy range but still be opening a lot. Here is a good default on where to start and you can adjust from here.
Scenario 3. Villain is somewhere in between 50 and 80% fold to steal in bb.
In this case its up to you to adjust your opening range based on his fold frequency. Overall though i would encourage you to err on the side of stealing rather than folding.
How do i counter stealing on the btn from the co?
If you notice the co opening a lot. Take a look at his stats and see what his opening range from the co looks like. If he is stealing you can call wider and look to float and raise postflop or you can 3b pre to get him to slow down.
How do i counter stealing in the blinds vs the co/btn?
In this spot we can look to call or 3b them depending on their tendancies. This is just a basic stealing article so i dont want to get into too much detail but just dont blindly fold vs their steals. We know they have a wide range so they wont be able to take a lot of heat from pre and postflop aggression.
How do i counter stealing on the bb vs the sb?
This is the absolute best position to be in in poker. Its better than the btn. When you are in the bb, you have position pre and postflop and you know the sb has a huge stealing range. I think this is a very important spot to play back at stealers. I would call any playable hand like 64s and 98o. I would call with hands that dominate him as well like JTo and A9s. I would 3b a ton here as well and my range would be determined by his facing 3b tendancies.
Overall though you dont want to give these guys a walk every time. Make their life difficult.
He called my steal, what do i do on the flop?
This is out of scope, but use your knowledge, position, and skill to play better than him.
Conclusion
Stealing is an incredibly profitable and effective tool. Most players dont do it enough. Most players dont counter it enough. Get out there and experiment, break your boundaries, get out of your comfort zone and make some money.
Feel free to add any advice or comments to make this thread as complete as possible.
EDIT
* Its true that their defending range might be different based on the position of the pfr. You can add those specific stats in your pop up in HEM if you want to reference them.
I cant edit my post so ill add a screen shot of what you mean for others to reference.
Isolating Limpers 101
Isolating limpers 101
What is isolating?
Isolating is raising a limper preflop.
What does it accomplish?
As much as you possibly can. Isolating limpers is a massively profitable play. I know for a fact most players dont do it as much as they should and most players dont understand how much they should be doing it.
Over 100bb/100. Making a buy in every 100 hands is very nice.
How often do you iso?
My normal pfr is 17%. My pfr when unopened is about 23%. Vs a limper its 26%. It should even be higher than this. I think it should be above 30%.
What do you look for in order to isolate?
First check the villains stats. The most important stats to consider are :limp call, limp fold, limp raise, and fold to cb.
Next look at your hand. Is it playable? 93o and J2o are not very playable hands vs almost anyone.
Scenario 1. Villain has high limp fold and fold to cb.
Here we can iso almost any 2 cards because he is folding a lot pre and on the flop so it doesnt really matter what we have because mathematically we will win so often we can do it with 100% of our range.
Scenario 2. Villain has high limp fold and low fold to cb.
We can still iso very wide but we prefer to have a playable hand postflop that can flop some kind of equity because if he calls pre, his is likely to see the board to the river.
Scenario 3. Villain has low limp fold and high fold to cb.
A typically fit or fold player who loves to see flops but folds when he misses. We can still iso a very wide range and cb a ton of flops.
Scenario 4. Villain has low limp fold and low fold to cb.
We have to iso wide still but not as wide as the other scenarios. We have to make sure we have hands that can hit postflop, especially top pair good kicker hands. This villain will want to see every flop and call most flop cbets so he can see if he hits on later streets or
will never fold bottom pair. Therefore we need value oriented hands to value bet him to death.
One more thing to consider when you iso is who is left to act. Chances are any reg/tag/nit type player wont give you any trouble unless they have a premium hand. Even the lags who 3b a lot will tend to give you lots of credit unless they have a premium as well. The main thing to look for is another very loose player who will cold call your iso raise. If you iso a limper and have a 64/6 left to act for example, you will have to also assume he will call and make sure your hand will be good enough vs 2 players and their tendancies. So dont iso a guy with 75o (even if vs him heads up it would be profitable) when theres another very loose player left to act as he will likely call and you are now in a bad spot. Keep your range value heavy when you expect to get it multiway on the flop.
What about position?
Position really doesnt matter that much because our skill level is so much greater and we are exploiting them so badly. It is better to play a bit tighter oop though as you dont get as much pot control and post flop options.
Whats our isoing range?
Here is a good one to start. You can add or subtract to it depending on villain tendancy and position. I typically will over limp small pairs because its hard to make postflop unless we have a set. We have 2 outs if we dont hit a set and have little fold equity. Also we get a cheap flop and it will usually be multiway.
Whats our preflop raise size?
I usually start by raising to pot by default. If the villain is fit or fold post flop i might make it a bit bigger. If you make it too big you will just get folds so often preflop that you will end up losing some postflop value. So play with it and take notes on how big each villain is willing to call.
If the player is short stacked on the other hand we need to make it a bit smaller because we still want room and fold equity postflop. 3x is a good start. 2.5x if he is really short.
Whats our plan on the flop?
We should cb a very high amount vs the players who can fold postflop. If we bet half pot we only have to be successful 33% of the time to break even. So if the villain has a 50% fold to cb and we bet half pot every time, we are showing profit. I think its important to cb bluff half pot and bet bigger for value or with big draws. These limpers are usually bad players and wont notice your sizing so you might as well exploit them in another way.
For example if i have 7c6c and the flop comes Kc4d2h, i will bet half pot.
If i have AhJh and the flop comes Th9c3h, i will bet near pot because our A, J, and heart will give us the best hand most of the time. We dont have a hand but we have a large chance of getting one on later streets.
If i have AdKc on AhJc5h, i will bet near pot again. I have a value hand and lots worse will call me. Might as well get max value.
Another important thing you can determine from their fold to cb stat is how light they will call you. For example if a player has a 13% fold to cb, he will be floating you with any pair, any draw, naked overs, and any back door draw. You can easily vbet 2nd pair hands and even worse vs him.
What if they call our cbet?
Then its up to you to play well postflop.
What if there is more than 1 limper?
In this case its more important to have value hands rather than suited connector type hands. You want to flop top pair or other strong hands and vbet them to death. I would also tighten up oop more and cb bluff a lot less. With two or more callers, there is a better chance someone has hit the flop.
How do you combat players who iso limpers alot?
First we can check their raise limper stat to the raise first stat to see if they are tighter or looser vs a limp.
Scenario 1. Villain is tighter vs a limper.
Against these guys we know that they will have a tight value heavy range so we should give them more respect. We can play back by calling good hands if we expect the limper to call along. We shouldnt 3b them very much because they will have a value hand and it is less likely they are going to fold. If you do decide to 3b, 3b a polarized range if you expect the limper to fold and the raiser to 4b or fold. 3b a value range if you expect the limper to call your 3b or the raiser to call or fold. Generally you dont get a lot of calls from a tight isoer here, they usually will 4b or fold, you mainly need to know what the limper is going to do.
Scenario 2. Villain is looser vs a limper.
This is what we should be so we know we have a very wide isolating range. This means we can 3b here much more often because the villain will have a very wide range and we have lots of fold equity. The only problem is if the limper will call our 3b. We need to have a polarized range or value range based on what we think the limper will do. The best time to bluff is when the raiser is on the btn and we are in the blinds. If you look at players' iso stats they will almost always be widest on the btn.
Conclusion
Overall isolating limpers is a very easy and good way to make a lot of money. It also takes you out of your comfort zone by raising hands you might not normally raise but because you know how to exploit the villain so easily, it makes the hand profitable to play.
I recommend you look to isolate as much as you can comfortably isolate to start. Start with a value heavy range and once you are comfortable with it, start to widen it slowly until you get to a point where you isolate with the maximum profitable range.
Good luck on the felt and feel free to add any more ideas or advice or ask questions.
What is isolating?
Isolating is raising a limper preflop.
What does it accomplish?
- It allows you to steal his dead money limp preflop.
- It allows you to play heads up vs a bad player more often.
- It prevents 3betting from players left behind you.
- It prevents players from calling as wide as the normally would to a normal pfr size.
As much as you possibly can. Isolating limpers is a massively profitable play. I know for a fact most players dont do it as much as they should and most players dont understand how much they should be doing it.
Over 100bb/100. Making a buy in every 100 hands is very nice.
How often do you iso?
My normal pfr is 17%. My pfr when unopened is about 23%. Vs a limper its 26%. It should even be higher than this. I think it should be above 30%.
What do you look for in order to isolate?
First check the villains stats. The most important stats to consider are :limp call, limp fold, limp raise, and fold to cb.
Next look at your hand. Is it playable? 93o and J2o are not very playable hands vs almost anyone.
Scenario 1. Villain has high limp fold and fold to cb.
Here we can iso almost any 2 cards because he is folding a lot pre and on the flop so it doesnt really matter what we have because mathematically we will win so often we can do it with 100% of our range.
Scenario 2. Villain has high limp fold and low fold to cb.
We can still iso very wide but we prefer to have a playable hand postflop that can flop some kind of equity because if he calls pre, his is likely to see the board to the river.
Scenario 3. Villain has low limp fold and high fold to cb.
A typically fit or fold player who loves to see flops but folds when he misses. We can still iso a very wide range and cb a ton of flops.
Scenario 4. Villain has low limp fold and low fold to cb.
We have to iso wide still but not as wide as the other scenarios. We have to make sure we have hands that can hit postflop, especially top pair good kicker hands. This villain will want to see every flop and call most flop cbets so he can see if he hits on later streets or
will never fold bottom pair. Therefore we need value oriented hands to value bet him to death.
One more thing to consider when you iso is who is left to act. Chances are any reg/tag/nit type player wont give you any trouble unless they have a premium hand. Even the lags who 3b a lot will tend to give you lots of credit unless they have a premium as well. The main thing to look for is another very loose player who will cold call your iso raise. If you iso a limper and have a 64/6 left to act for example, you will have to also assume he will call and make sure your hand will be good enough vs 2 players and their tendancies. So dont iso a guy with 75o (even if vs him heads up it would be profitable) when theres another very loose player left to act as he will likely call and you are now in a bad spot. Keep your range value heavy when you expect to get it multiway on the flop.
What about position?
Position really doesnt matter that much because our skill level is so much greater and we are exploiting them so badly. It is better to play a bit tighter oop though as you dont get as much pot control and post flop options.
Whats our isoing range?
Here is a good one to start. You can add or subtract to it depending on villain tendancy and position. I typically will over limp small pairs because its hard to make postflop unless we have a set. We have 2 outs if we dont hit a set and have little fold equity. Also we get a cheap flop and it will usually be multiway.
Whats our preflop raise size?
I usually start by raising to pot by default. If the villain is fit or fold post flop i might make it a bit bigger. If you make it too big you will just get folds so often preflop that you will end up losing some postflop value. So play with it and take notes on how big each villain is willing to call.
If the player is short stacked on the other hand we need to make it a bit smaller because we still want room and fold equity postflop. 3x is a good start. 2.5x if he is really short.
Whats our plan on the flop?
We should cb a very high amount vs the players who can fold postflop. If we bet half pot we only have to be successful 33% of the time to break even. So if the villain has a 50% fold to cb and we bet half pot every time, we are showing profit. I think its important to cb bluff half pot and bet bigger for value or with big draws. These limpers are usually bad players and wont notice your sizing so you might as well exploit them in another way.
For example if i have 7c6c and the flop comes Kc4d2h, i will bet half pot.
If i have AhJh and the flop comes Th9c3h, i will bet near pot because our A, J, and heart will give us the best hand most of the time. We dont have a hand but we have a large chance of getting one on later streets.
If i have AdKc on AhJc5h, i will bet near pot again. I have a value hand and lots worse will call me. Might as well get max value.
Another important thing you can determine from their fold to cb stat is how light they will call you. For example if a player has a 13% fold to cb, he will be floating you with any pair, any draw, naked overs, and any back door draw. You can easily vbet 2nd pair hands and even worse vs him.
What if they call our cbet?
Then its up to you to play well postflop.
What if there is more than 1 limper?
In this case its more important to have value hands rather than suited connector type hands. You want to flop top pair or other strong hands and vbet them to death. I would also tighten up oop more and cb bluff a lot less. With two or more callers, there is a better chance someone has hit the flop.
How do you combat players who iso limpers alot?
First we can check their raise limper stat to the raise first stat to see if they are tighter or looser vs a limp.
Scenario 1. Villain is tighter vs a limper.
Against these guys we know that they will have a tight value heavy range so we should give them more respect. We can play back by calling good hands if we expect the limper to call along. We shouldnt 3b them very much because they will have a value hand and it is less likely they are going to fold. If you do decide to 3b, 3b a polarized range if you expect the limper to fold and the raiser to 4b or fold. 3b a value range if you expect the limper to call your 3b or the raiser to call or fold. Generally you dont get a lot of calls from a tight isoer here, they usually will 4b or fold, you mainly need to know what the limper is going to do.
Scenario 2. Villain is looser vs a limper.
This is what we should be so we know we have a very wide isolating range. This means we can 3b here much more often because the villain will have a very wide range and we have lots of fold equity. The only problem is if the limper will call our 3b. We need to have a polarized range or value range based on what we think the limper will do. The best time to bluff is when the raiser is on the btn and we are in the blinds. If you look at players' iso stats they will almost always be widest on the btn.
Conclusion
Overall isolating limpers is a very easy and good way to make a lot of money. It also takes you out of your comfort zone by raising hands you might not normally raise but because you know how to exploit the villain so easily, it makes the hand profitable to play.
I recommend you look to isolate as much as you can comfortably isolate to start. Start with a value heavy range and once you are comfortable with it, start to widen it slowly until you get to a point where you isolate with the maximum profitable range.
Good luck on the felt and feel free to add any more ideas or advice or ask questions.
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